Selection of optimal developing strategy for a group of prospects in terms of geological uncertainties and infrastructure constraints

Vladislav Aleksandrovich Legkokonets, Saintmining University Petersburg, Alexey Aleksandrovich Vasilenko, Mars Magnavievich Khasanov

Результат исследования: Публикации в книгах, отчётах, сборниках, трудах конференцийстатья в сборнике материалов конференциинаучнаярецензирование

Аннотация

The aim of this work is to create a tool that can help in making difficult investment decisions about the sequence and commissioning periods of new hydrocarbons fields, maximizing expected monetary value and considering infrastructure constraints across a group of assets in terms geological uncertainties. The approach is to use probabilistic calculations and the modern portfolio theory, adapted to the conditions of the sphere of petroleum exploration and production. The goal of optimization is finding a strategy for new assets development that would have the maximum profit with minimal economic or technological risk. Measures of spread of a random variable (a.g. NPV) around its expected value are used to measure an economic risk. Also, we propose a method of technological risk assessment, reflecting the probability of hydrocarbon production in the required range. To obtain a probability distribution of the objective function according to uncertainties in input data the stochastic Monte-Carlo simulation and "Latin hypercube"technique were used. Due to high dimensionality of the problem, heuristic optimization methods have been used to solve the optimization task. A proxy model, based on the change in recoverable reserves volumes, starting production rates and decline rates of hydrocarbon production for newly drilled wells is proposed in this paper. The model combined with the calculation of economic measures. The combination of simulation models with an optimization algorithm allows to analyze a set of mathematical equations, containing a number of decision variables (e.g., years of commissioning periods and/or the paces of drilling wells) and to determine their optimum values, leading to a solution with the desired ratios of the expected economic effect and risk value. As a result, the numerical experiment revealed that application of the portfolio optimization methods allows to find new non-obvious solutions. The result of portfolio analysis is not a final product of project works, but, however, may be a basis for explanation of optimal development scenarios for a group of assets and can help in finding non-obvious, but more effective investment and project decisions. A comparison of four heuristic algorithms in the single-criterion optimization problem was conducted. Conclusions about the effectiveness of the algorithms in terms of time and the fitness function values were made. The developed model and methods were used in task of searching the optimal development strategy for a group of real hydrocarbons fields.

Язык оригиналаанглийский
Название основной публикацииSociety of Petroleum Engineers - SPE Russian Petroleum Technology Conference 2020, RPTC 2020
ИздательSociety of Petroleum Engineers
ISBN (электронное издание)9781613997451
СостояниеОпубликовано - 2020
СобытиеSPE Russian Petroleum Technology Conference 2020, RPTC 2020 - Virtual, Online
Продолжительность: 26 окт 202029 окт 2020

Серия публикаций

НазваниеSociety of Petroleum Engineers - SPE Russian Petroleum Technology Conference 2020, RPTC 2020

Конференция

КонференцияSPE Russian Petroleum Technology Conference 2020, RPTC 2020
ГородVirtual, Online
Период26.10.202029.10.2020

Предметные области OECD FOS+WOS

  • 2.07.IX ИНЖЕНЕРИЯ, ГЕОЛОГИЧЕСКАЯ
  • 1.05 НАУКИ О ЗЕМЛЕ И СМЕЖНЫЕ ЭКОЛОГИЧЕСКИЕ НАУКИ
  • 2.07.ID ЭНЕРГЕТИКА И ТОПЛИВА

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