Verification of Diffusion Model for Coastal Profile Evolution

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Abstract

We continue studying the possibility to predict the so-called long-term evolution of a depth profile in coastal zone. Long-term means at the scale of years, namely 10s years of measurements and several years of prediction. Prediction of coastal profile evolution is done by first calibrating a diffusion-type model, earlier proposed in the literature to describe this phenomenon, and then extrapolating the model's coefficients (by the Support Vector Machine) over time. A realistic prediction is then made by solving numerically a diffusion equation whose coefficients have been obtained by the extrapolated values of such coefficients, numerically obtained using the measured data. In previous works, we studied the model in the 'frequency-type' domain. Observations made over more than 20 years were used to accomplish the aforementioned calibration. We have then analysed the diffusion model directly in the time-space domain. In this paper, we consider the possibility of prediction the coastal profiles evolution for 3 years using only 10 or even 5 years measurements. Numerical experiments made by using the JARKUS dataset have shown that our model is indeed capable to predict the depth profile evolution occurring 3 years from now, within a relative error normally less than 10%.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2020 Global Oceans 2020
Subtitle of host publicationSingapore - U.S. Gulf Coast
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9781728154466
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 5 Oct 2020
Event2020 Global Oceans: Singapore - U.S. Gulf Coast, OCEANS 2020 - Biloxi, United States
Duration: 5 Oct 202030 Oct 2020

Publication series

Name2020 Global Oceans 2020: Singapore - U.S. Gulf Coast

Conference

Conference2020 Global Oceans: Singapore - U.S. Gulf Coast, OCEANS 2020
CountryUnited States
CityBiloxi
Period05.10.202030.10.2020

Keywords

  • depth profile evolution
  • diffusion model
  • prediction

OECD FOS+WOS

  • 1.05.SI OCEANOGRAPHY

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