Stochastic models of non-stationary time series of the average daily heat index

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Abstract

In this paper two numerical stochastic models of time series of the average daily heat index are considered. In the first model, time series of the heat index are constructed as a function of simulated joint nonstationary time series of air temperature and relative humidity. The second model is constructed under the assumption that time series of the heat index are non-stationary non-Gaussian random processes. Data from real observations at weather stations were used for estimating models’ parameters. On the basis of the simulated trajectories, some statistical properties of rare meteorological events, like long periods of time with high heat index, are studied.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSIMULTECH 2019 - Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications
EditorsMohammad Obaidat, Mohammad Obaidat, Tuncer Oren, Helena Szczerbicka
PublisherSciTePress
Pages209-215
Number of pages7
ISBN (Electronic)9789897583810
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2019
Event9th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, SIMULTECH 2019 - Prague, Czech Republic
Duration: 29 Jul 201931 Jul 2019

Publication series

NameSIMULTECH 2019 - Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications

Conference

Conference9th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, SIMULTECH 2019
CountryCzech Republic
CityPrague
Period29.07.201931.07.2019

Keywords

  • Air Temperature
  • Heat Index
  • Model Validation
  • Non-stationary Random Process
  • Relative Humidity
  • Stochastic Simulation

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  • Cite this

    Kargapolova, N. (2019). Stochastic models of non-stationary time series of the average daily heat index. In M. Obaidat, M. Obaidat, T. Oren, & H. Szczerbicka (Eds.), SIMULTECH 2019 - Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (pp. 209-215). (SIMULTECH 2019 - Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications). SciTePress.