TY - GEN
T1 - Stoсhastic model of the time series of the average daily bioclimatic index of severity of climatic regime
AU - Kargapolova, Nina A.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2019 EUROSIS-ETI.
PY - 2019/1/1
Y1 - 2019/1/1
N2 - In this paper, a numerical stochastic model of the time series of the average daily bioclimatic index of severity of climatic regime is proposed and validated. This model is based on an assumption that real weather processes are non-stationary random processes on a year-long interval. In this assumption, the model takes into account the seasonal variation of the real meteorological processes. The input parameters of the model are determined from the data of long-term real observations at weather stations. It is shown that the trajectories of the model proposed are close in their statistical properties to the real time series of the bioclimatic index under consideration. The results related to studying the influence of a climate change on the time series of the average daily bioclimatic index of severity of climatic regime are given.
AB - In this paper, a numerical stochastic model of the time series of the average daily bioclimatic index of severity of climatic regime is proposed and validated. This model is based on an assumption that real weather processes are non-stationary random processes on a year-long interval. In this assumption, the model takes into account the seasonal variation of the real meteorological processes. The input parameters of the model are determined from the data of long-term real observations at weather stations. It is shown that the trajectories of the model proposed are close in their statistical properties to the real time series of the bioclimatic index under consideration. The results related to studying the influence of a climate change on the time series of the average daily bioclimatic index of severity of climatic regime are given.
KW - Bioclimatic Index of Severity of Climatic Regime
KW - Climate Change
KW - Non-stationary Random Process
KW - Stochastic Simulation
KW - Time-series Analysis
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85076207311&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Conference contribution
T3 - 33rd Annual European Simulation and Modelling Conference 2019, ESM 2019
SP - 185
EP - 189
BT - 33rd Annual European Simulation and Modelling Conference 2019, ESM 2019
A2 - Fuster-Parra, Pilar
A2 - Sierra, Oscar Valero
PB - EUROSIS
T2 - 33rd Annual European Simulation and Modelling Conference, ESM 2019
Y2 - 28 October 2019 through 30 October 2019
ER -