Numerically statistical investigation of the partly super-exponential growth rate in the COVID-19 pandemic (throughout the world)

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Abstract

A number of particles in a multiplying medium under rather general conditions is asymptotically exponential with respect to time t with the parameter λ, i.e., with the index of power λt. If the medium is random, then the parameter λ is the random variable. To estimate the temporal asymptotics of the mean particles number (via the medium realizations), it is possible to average the exponential function via the corresponding distribution. Assuming that this distribution is Gaussian, the super-exponential estimate of the mean particle number could be obtained and expressed by the exponent with the index of power tEλ + t2Dλ/2. The application of this new formula to investigation of the COVID-19 pandemic is performed.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)877-879
Number of pages3
JournalJournal of Inverse and Ill-Posed Problems
Volume28
Issue number6
Early online date1 Sep 2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2020

Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • statistical investigation
  • The novel Coronavirus pandemic

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