GIS-Technologies and mathematical simulation as tools for lightning-caused forest fire danger prediction

Nikolay Baranovskiy, Vladimir Barakhnin, Elena Yankovich

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

New approach to forecasting of forest fire danger caused by storm activity is presented in the article. This approach is based on using the criteria of forest fire danger and physically proved mathematical models of forest fuel ignition. The formula of criterion is based on a probabilistic assessment of forest fire danger and uses the main theorems of probability theory. Data of a forest fire retrospective on the controlled territory are used to assess the members in probabilistic criterion. Timiryazevskiy local forestry of the Timiryazevskiy timber enterprise of the Tomsk region is considered as a typical territory. It is shown that it is not enough to use only statistical information on forest fires for an adequate assessment of the forest fire danger caused by action of storm activity. Visualization of data is carried out with the use of geoinformation technologies.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2-15
Number of pages14
JournalCEUR Workshop Proceedings
Volume1839
Publication statusPublished - 2017

Keywords

  • Forest fire danger
  • Gis
  • Lightning
  • Mathematical simulation
  • Prediction

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