Моделирование энергопотребления в социотехнических системах с интеллектуальным оборудованием

Modern socio-technical systems in various fields include a large number of smart equipment that can independently regulate its own energy consumption, as well as interact with other consumers in decision-making and management processes. Energy is one of these areas. Self-organization and collective self-consumption are the most promising in terms of ensuring the efficiency of energy use. Existing and prospective approaches to using static and dynamic time-based tariffs are under consideration. The paper presents a mathematical description of two models of energy consumption: a static model based on the allocation of two zones with a fixed duration and tariffs for each one and a dynamic model of two-tariff accounting with feedback, which assumes tariffs changing based on the results of the analysis of current electricity consumption. A pilot study of both models was conducted by using energy consumption data and taking into account the rational behavior of smart devices as consumers who can choose the best periods for electricity consumption. During the experiments it was investigated how an increase in the share of smart devices in the composition of electricity consumers as well as options for establishing zones and tariffs, affect the possibility of achieving uniform consumption during the day. Experiments have shown that with a small proportion of smart devices, acceptable results that reduce the variation in the consumption function can favor usage of the model without feedback. An increase in the number of actors in the system inevitably requires including a feedback mechanism into the system that allows the resource supplier to prevent excessive concentration of smart devices during the period of the cheaper tariff. However, when the share of smart devices exceeds a certain critical value, a pronounced inversion of the times of cheap and expensive tariffs occurs in two successive iterations. In this case, in order to ensure a quite even distribution of electricity consumption, it is advisable for the supplier to return to the single tariff rate. Thus, an excessive increase in the number of actors in the system can neutralize the effect of their use.