China's One Belt, One Road initiative and the paradigms of historical macrosociology

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Abstract

Introduction. The opportunities and outcomes of One Belt, One Road initiative (OBOR), declared by China, are extremely vague. It is reasonable to consider the initiative through the prism of the following macrosociological paradigms: realism and idealism in the theory of international relations, supply and demand model, the principles of geopolitical dynamics, solid platforms and limitotrophs, migration and territorial dynamics, and the world-system analysis. Materials and Methods. The idea of China’s One Belt, One Road initiative and information on its implementation are compared with the basic concepts, models, and schemes of the above paradigms. Results. The conceptual means of each paradigm allow to identify the probable causes and loci of tensions and conflicts in implementing such an ambitious initiative. These strains include the following: risks of non-return of investments, the negative consequences of the inflow of cheap food products, depressing local production of previously inaccessible areas, negative outcomes of accelerated urbanization, in particular the “youth bubble” in cities, the aggravation of territorial conflicts, the struggle of big powers for influence on small neighboring (limitrophic) states, increased opportunities for drug trafficking and stress due to the need to control it, facilitating migration, which leads to the devastation of some loci and demographic pressure in others. Conclusions. The identified tensions can become factors increasing social instability up to sociopolitical crises and revolutions. There is no fatality, but there are risks and the need to monitor geopolitical and geo-economic changes, migration and demographic processes as consequences of One Belt, One Road initiative implementation.

Translated title of the contributionКитайский проект "Один пояс - один путь" в контексте парадигм исторической макросоциологии
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)173-188
Number of pages16
JournalNovosibirsk State Pedagogical University Bulletin
Volume8
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2018

Keywords

  • China
  • Economic integration
  • Geo-economics
  • Geopolitics
  • Idealism
  • International relations
  • New Silk Road
  • Realism
  • Transport integration
  • Transport integration of Eurasia
  • World analysis

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