Глобальные и национальные факторы влияния на экспорт и импорт регионов на примере Сибирского федерального округа

A strategy for improving export and import of Russian regions requires the identification of macroeconomic factors affecting their foreign trade. According to the scientific principle of deduction (from general to particular), trends observed in highly aggregated objects should be assessed first. Time series for foreign trade of the Siberian Federal District were analysed and compared with those of the Russian Federation, Central Federal District and the city of Moscow. Methods of comparative, structural, expert analysis, statistical estimation and econometric modelling are utilised in the research. The study demonstrates that the separation of profit centres and production sites through legal registration of company head offices (the mechanism called «administrative resource») negatively affects regional exports, as well as other aspects. 2018–2019 ratings of Russian regions in terms of production, volume of operations and gross regional product (GRP) per capita revealed the centre’s monopoly in the mining and manufacturing sectors, causing further centralisation of regional budgetary resources. Application of the method of stepwise regression based on partial correlations demonstrated the significant influence of world oil prices and the weak impact of sanctions for Russian trade. It was statistically confirmed that trade in the Siberian Federal District primarily depends on world metal prices, and then the rouble exchange rate, while the influence of the price of oil, whose export was practically taken out of the region, is quite weak. The proposed combination of profit centres with places of its generation is considered as an effective tool for regional equalisation of the foreign trade effect, aimed at overcoming the socio-economic heterogeneity of regions without involving the federal budget. The obtained results can be used by government bodies and research centres for developing regional strategies.